Key Insights
Top profitable patterns and warning signs from the data below. Only buckets with at least 15 settled bets are considered to avoid small-sample noise.
🟢 Where to find profit
🔴 Watch out
Overall Recommendation Performance
Win rate and ROI on the side we recommend in each market (moneyline, run line, totals). "Recommended" = the side where dollar volume % exceeds ticket count % (sharp indicator). Bets settled at posted American odds, $100 stake per bet.
| Market | Bets | Record | Win % | ROI % | Profit |
|---|
Performance by Opportunity Score
Win/loss on the recommended side, bucketed by the same opportunity score the /mlb page assigns. "High Sharp Div (60+)" matches the 💎 picks shown there. "Fade Everyone" is the public-heavy contrarian case (≥90% bets on one side, no sharp signal). Higher tiers should outperform lower ones if the model is working.
Market Strength Comparison
Which market has the strongest recommendation signal? Same data as the overall table, ranked for quick visual comparison.
| Market | Bets | Win % | ROI % | Profit |
|---|
Fade the Public
When public ticket % on one side is very high, what happens if you take the other side blindly? Bucketed by how heavy the public is on a side.
Sharp Money Divergence (Fine-grained)
Same recommended-side outcomes as above but in finer score increments. Higher score = larger sharp gap. Excludes fade-everyone (score 35) cases — those are in their own bucket.
Totals Performance by Line Size
Are over/under recommendations stronger on low totals, pitchers' duels, or slugfests? Grouped by totals line.
| Line | Bets | Record | Win % | ROI % |
|---|
Moneyline: Favorites vs Underdogs
Splits of recommended moneyline plays by whether the recommended side is the favorite or the underdog. ROI matters more than win % here.
| Category | Bets | Record | Win % | ROI % | Profit |
|---|
Rolling Recent Form
Most recent rolling win % on recommended bets. Shows whether the model is trending up or down lately. Requires at least 10 settled bets in a market.