How we track betting splits, what the numbers mean, and how we score opportunities.
For each game on the day's slate, we track two numbers per market and per side:
We track these for the moneyline, the run line / spread, and the total (over / under). Splits are aggregated from public sportsbook reporting and updated continuously throughout the day.
When the bet percentage and money percentage on a given side roughly match, the market is in agreement: a lot of small bets and a lot of larger bets are landing on the same conclusion.
When the two diverge — a side has a high bet percentage but a low money percentage, for example — it means the casual side and the dollar weight disagree. Casual bettors are stacking tickets on one team while the larger, more concentrated bets are landing the other way. Historically, dollar weight is a more reliable signal than ticket count.
On free pages, we surface the day's biggest splits-based opportunities. Each market on each game gets an opportunity score based on the size of the bet/money gap and the public-bet concentration. Higher score = bigger divergence between the casual side and the dollar weight.
Games are bucketed into a few tiers: lopsided public plays, sharp-divergence games (high and moderate), minor-edge games, and the rest. The free MLB page ranks each day's slate by opportunity score so you can see where the most interesting splits are at a glance.
Our advanced product — MLB Advanced Recommendations — goes further. It rates each game by expected value, computed against thousands of historical splits outcomes. The idea: a 65/35 split with a particular line and a particular bucket of historical similar games has an expected dollar return we can estimate.
Advanced picks are ranked by EV per $100 risked. They're reserved for subscribers.
Betting splits are updated on a sub-hourly cadence throughout each game day. Schedules and final results are updated continuously as games complete. The most recent update timestamp is shown at the top of each game and team page.
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