Grizzlies at Warriors: the Golden State Warriors draw 58% of spread bets and 65% of the money, a 7-point gap.
| Market | Side | Bet % | Money % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 | 42% | 35% | -110 |
| Golden State Warriors -3.5 | 58% | 65% | -110 | |
| Total | Over 235.5 | 78% | 75% | -109 |
| Under 235.5 | 22% | 25% | -110 | |
| Moneyline | Memphis Grizzlies | 12% | 12% | +126 |
| Golden State Warriors | 88% | 88% | -150 |
On Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors, the Golden State Warriors (-3.5) draw 58% of the spread bets and 65% of the money. The money runs 7 points ahead of the tickets, so the larger bets lean the same way as the crowd.
A gap of 7 points is a little wider than the typical NBA spread, which closes about 4 points apart. It's worth a glance, not a conclusion.
On the total, 78% of bets and 75% of the money are on the Over 235.5. That's the normal pattern in the NBA: over the last two seasons, 60% or more of total bets landed on the over in about 96% of games.
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The Golden State Warriors have 65% of the spread dollars against 58% of the tickets, a 7-point difference. A gap that size means the larger bets are not landing in the same proportions as the ticket count.
The favorite gives points and the underdog gets them. A favorite at -6.5 has to win by 7 or more to cover; the underdog at +6.5 covers with a win or a loss by 6 or fewer. Unlike hockey's fixed puck line, the number itself moves with the betting.
Almost always. Over the last two seasons, 60% or more of total bets landed on the over in about 96% of NBA games. On this game the public side of the total is the Over 235.5.
Not on the split alone. Across the last two NBA seasons, neither backing the side with more money than tickets nor fading heavily bet spread sides reliably beat the bookmaker's margin at closing prices. Splits are context for your own read, not a pick.
At the latest snapshot, the Golden State Warriors have 58% of the spread bets and 65% of the money. The table above has both sides of the spread, the total and the moneyline.
Every ticket counts once in the bet percentage, but in the money percentage a $1,000 bet counts a hundred times more than a $10 one. When the two disagree, the bigger bets are landing somewhere other than the crowd. On NBA spreads the two usually sit close: last season the typical closing gap was about 4 points, and only about one game in eight reached 10. On its own, following the money has not reliably beaten NBA prices. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money: see our methodology →
Last updated: October 22, 2026 at 9:48 PM UTC
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