Mississippi State season-to-date: 4-3 ATS, 51.4% average bet share, 51.4% money share.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ATS record (tracked games) | 4-3 |
| Average bet % | 51.4% |
| Average money % | 51.4% |
| Games as public favorite (60%+ bets) | 3 |
| ATS record as public favorite | 2-1 |
| Fade-the-public record (vs them as public fav) | 1-2 |
Mississippi State don't have a strong public-vs-money pattern this season. Across the 7 games we've tracked, the average bet percentage on Mississippi State is 51.4% and the average money percentage is 51.4%. Those are middle-of-the-pack numbers — bettors are split, dollars follow the bet count, and the line generally reflects the matchup rather than the public lean.
With 7 games on the board, the data is starting to mean something — and what it means is that Mississippi State aren't a high-conviction fade or follow play. There's no consistent edge in either direction.
Watch the per-game splits below. Even balanced teams have individual games with meaningful divergence — that's where the daily roundups come in. See our methodology →.
Our advanced model rates every NCAAF game by expected value, using thousands of historical splits as the backbone. This week's highest-EV picks are reserved for subscribers.
Want a free look? See this week's biggest splits →
| Date | Matchup | Result | Mississippi State bet % | Mississippi State money % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Oklahoma @ Mississippi State | Failed to cover 15-23 (+1.5) | 44.0% | 44.0% |
| 2026-10-17 | Mississippi State @ LSU | Failed to cover 0-31 (+17.5) | 73.0% | 65.0% |
| 2026-10-03 | Alabama @ Mississippi State | Failed to cover 23-56 (+5.5) | 40.0% | 42.0% |
| 2026-09-26 | Missouri @ Mississippi State | Covered 31-24 (-3.5) | 57.0% | 58.0% |
| 2026-09-19 | Mississippi State @ South Carolina | Covered 41-34 (+4) | 66.0% | 50.0% |
A game counts only when it has a final score, a closing spread and a published split. An FCS opponent the source never priced, or a game whose splits were not captured before kickoff, is left out rather than guessed at.
When 60% or more of spread tickets land on Mississippi State, they're 2-1 ATS this season. Books shade college lines toward the side they know the public wants, and on a board full of mismatches that shade is often the whole story.
Mississippi State are 4-3 against the spread in the games where we have a closing split. That's the number that matters for a bettor — a team can win every Saturday by three touchdowns and still lose money for the people laying four.
1-2 ATS this season — the mirror of their public-favorite record, because the fade covers exactly when the public side doesn't. It's shown as a record rather than a recommendation; a handful of games is not a pattern.
From publicly reported sportsbook handle, captured on a sub-hourly cadence for every FBS game from the moment a line is posted. The team figures use each game's closing snapshot — the last read before kickoff — so every number reflects what a bettor could actually have known.
How we track public bets and money: see our methodology →
Last updated: October 30, 2026 at 5:49 AM UTC
Every game on the slate, ranked by public-vs-money divergence. Splits-based top opportunities, updated continuously. No signup, no paywall.
See all of this week's splits →