The Detroit Lions draw 57.7% of spread bets on average; fading them when they're public is 2-0-1 ATS this season.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ATS record (tracked games) | 1-4-1 |
| Average bet % | 57.7% |
| Average money % | 62.5% |
| Games as public favorite (60%+ bets) | 3 |
| ATS record as public favorite | 0-2-1 |
| Fade-the-public record (vs them as public fav) | 2-0-1 |
The Detroit Lions have been one of the season's clearer fade targets. Across 6 games where we have publicly reported splits data, casual bettors have hammered them — averaging 57.7% of the bet count when Detroit Lions are on the board. The dollars haven't followed: the average money percentage on Detroit Lions sits at 62.5%, a meaningful divergence that says the average bet on the other side is materially larger.
When Detroit Lions are a public favorite (60%+ of bets on their side), they're 0-2-1 this season. The fade-the-public side — betting against Detroit Lions when the public is loading up — is 2-0-1 in those same games. That's not a guarantee, and it's not enough sample to call a rule, but it is the data pattern that lands a team on the "heavy fade target" list.
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| Date | Matchup | Result | Detroit Lions bet % | Detroit Lions money % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Failed to cover 20-17 (-3.5) | 39.0% | 59.0% |
| 2026-10-11 | Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals | Covered 45-21 (-5.5) | 53.0% | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-04 | Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | Failed to cover 26-32 (-4.5) | 63.0% | 58.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | New York Jets @ Detroit Lions | Push 31-24 (-7) | 74.0% | 85.0% |
| 2026-09-17 | Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Failed to cover 31-41 (+5.5) | 55.0% | 40.0% |
From publicly reported sportsbook handle, captured on a sub-hourly cadence for every NFL game from the moment a line is posted. The team figures on this page use each game's closing snapshot — the last read before kickoff — so every number reflects what a bettor could actually have known.
2-0-1 ATS this season — the mirror of their public-favorite record, because the fade covers exactly when the public side doesn't. We show it as a record rather than a recommendation; a handful of games is not a pattern, and the line already builds in some of the public lean.
When 60% or more of spread tickets land on the Detroit Lions, they're 0-2-1 ATS this season. Books shade lines toward the side they know the public wants, so heavily backed teams as a group have historically covered a little under half the time — which is why this number gets its own row.
On the games we've tracked this season, the Detroit Lions draw 57.7% of spread tickets on average. Around 63% is typical for the more popular side of an NFL game, so a team living above 65% is one the crowd keeps coming back to — usually on name recognition, recent results or primetime exposure.
The Detroit Lions are 1-4-1 against the spread in the games where we have a closing split. That's the number that matters for a bettor — a team can win outright every week and still lose money for the people backing it at the number.
How we track public bets and money: see our methodology →
Last updated: October 30, 2026 at 5:50 AM UTC
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