The New England Patriots draw 51.9% of spread bets on average; fading them when they're public is 3-0 ATS this season.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ATS record (tracked games) | 3-3-1 |
| Average bet % | 51.9% |
| Average money % | 53.1% |
| Games as public favorite (60%+ bets) | 3 |
| ATS record as public favorite | 0-3 |
| Fade-the-public record (vs them as public fav) | 3-0 |
The New England Patriots have been one of the season's clearer fade targets. Across 7 games where we have publicly reported splits data, casual bettors have hammered them — averaging 51.9% of the bet count when New England Patriots are on the board. The dollars haven't followed: the average money percentage on New England Patriots sits at 53.1%, a meaningful divergence that says the average bet on the other side is materially larger.
When New England Patriots are a public favorite (60%+ of bets on their side), they're 0-3 this season. The fade-the-public side — betting against New England Patriots when the public is loading up — is 3-0 in those same games. That's not a guarantee, and it's not enough sample to call a rule, but it is the data pattern that lands a team on the "heavy fade target" list.
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| Date | Matchup | Result | New England Patriots bet % | New England Patriots money % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears | Failed to cover 24-30 (+3) | 68.0% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-18 | New York Jets @ New England Patriots | Failed to cover 26-19 (-7.5) | 75.0% | 71.0% |
| 2026-10-11 | Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots | Covered 45-17 (-3.5) | 30.0% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-04 | New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Covered 29-26 (+7) | 34.0% | 32.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Failed to cover 6-35 (+3) | 60.0% | 63.0% |
On the games we've tracked this season, the New England Patriots draw 51.9% of spread tickets on average. Around 63% is typical for the more popular side of an NFL game, so a team living above 65% is one the crowd keeps coming back to — usually on name recognition, recent results or primetime exposure.
When 60% or more of spread tickets land on the New England Patriots, they're 0-3 ATS this season. Books shade lines toward the side they know the public wants, so heavily backed teams as a group have historically covered a little under half the time — which is why this number gets its own row.
A game counts only when it has a final score, a closing spread and a published split. Early in the season that is every game; a game the source never listed, or one whose splits were not captured before kickoff, is left out rather than guessed at.
The New England Patriots are 3-3-1 against the spread in the games where we have a closing split. That's the number that matters for a bettor — a team can win outright every week and still lose money for the people backing it at the number.
From publicly reported sportsbook handle, captured on a sub-hourly cadence for every NFL game from the moment a line is posted. The team figures on this page use each game's closing snapshot — the last read before kickoff — so every number reflects what a bettor could actually have known.
How we track public bets and money: see our methodology →
Last updated: October 30, 2026 at 5:51 AM UTC
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