70.0% of spread bets are on Green Bay Packers +3 in Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots — a clear public lean on November 8, 2026.
| Market | Side | Bet % | Money % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +3 | 70% | 61% | -103 |
| New England Patriots -3 | 30% | 39% | -113 | |
| Total | Over 46.5 | 55% | 74% | -115 |
| Under 46.5 | 45% | 26% | -108 | |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers | 29% | 49% | +128 |
| New England Patriots | 71% | 51% | -153 |
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots is one of the slate's lopsided public plays. 70.0% of the bet count on the spread market is sitting on Green Bay Packers +3 — the kind of one-way lean that usually lands on a name-brand team in a primetime window, where the ticket count runs well ahead of the dollars.
The money side tells a slightly different story: 61.0% of dollars on Green Bay Packers +3 versus 70.0% of tickets. That's a small gap by itself, but in the context of a 70.0% public bet count, even a few points of money lag suggests the average bet on New England Patriots -3 is materially larger. Books price these games knowing the public is coming — the line builds in the lean — which is why heavy public favorites historically underperform their implied win rate against the spread.
None of this is a pick. It's the snapshot of how money is landing on this game right now. See how we calculate splits →.
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We don't issue picks. This page shows where the tickets and the dollars are landing so you can weigh that against your own read of the game.
The spread is the market NFL bettors trade. Moneyline percentages on a big favorite mostly restate the spread lean at a worse price, so we read the spread first and only let the total take over when its split is the more unusual one.
Yes, more than it would be in college football. NFL spreads are set by the most efficient market in American sports, so the typical game splits its tickets around 63/37 and only about one in four sides draws 70% or more. A count that lopsided usually means a name-brand team in a primetime window — and the money percentage against it is the number that says whether the sharper bettors agree.
On NFL spreads the median gap between a side's share of tickets and its share of dollars is about 2 points, a quarter of games clear 9, and one in ten clears 22. So a gap in the teens is already a top-quarter event here, where the same number on a college board would be ordinary.
Not as a blanket rule, and we don't present it as one. NFL lines are priced knowing which side the public is coming for, so the lean is mostly in the number already. What we track is where the ticket count and the dollars disagree, which is a narrower and more specific thing than fading whoever is popular.
NFL spreads are set by the sharpest market in American sports, so most games split their tickets close to 63/37 and only about a quarter of sides draw 70% or more. When one does, it is usually a name-brand team in a primetime window. The line already knows the public is coming; whether the dollars agree with the tickets is the part that carries information. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money: see our methodology →
Last updated: November 3, 2026 at 10:53 AM UTC
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