Notable totals split in Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings: a 16.0-point bet/money gap on Over 38.5.
| Market | Side | Bet % | Money % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Dolphins +10.5 | 28% | 18% | -110 |
| Minnesota Vikings -10.5 | 72% | 82% | -110 | |
| Total | Over 38.5 | 67% | 51% | -115 |
| Under 38.5 | 33% | 49% | -110 | |
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins | 4% | 26% | +500 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 96% | 74% | -620 |
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings shows a meaningful bet/money divergence on the totals market — not the biggest split on the slate, but worth a look. 67.0% of bets are on Over 38.5 while only 51.0% of dollars are on the same side — a 16.0-point gap.
A 10 to 20-point gap is the band where the data starts to mean something but doesn't yet scream. It usually means a handful of larger bets landed on Under 38.5 without the public catching on yet, or the public is leaning on a side that the market doesn't fully respect. Either way, the money side here is Under 38.5, and the price reflects what the books think of that lean.
Worth noting, not worth chasing alone. Pair it with the broader slate context if you're going to use it. See how we calculate splits →.
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Not as a blanket rule, and we don't present it as one. NFL lines are priced knowing which side the public is coming for, so the lean is mostly in the number already. What we track is where the ticket count and the dollars disagree, which is a narrower and more specific thing than fading whoever is popular.
On NFL spreads the median gap between a side's share of tickets and its share of dollars is about 2 points, a quarter of games clear 9, and one in ten clears 22. So a gap in the teens is already a top-quarter event here, where the same number on a college board would be ordinary.
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We don't issue picks. This page shows where the tickets and the dollars are landing so you can weigh that against your own read of the game.
The ticket count and the dollar count are measuring different bettors. A 16.0-point gap means the average wager on Over 38.5 is smaller than the average wager on the other side — a lot of small bets one way, fewer and larger ones the other. That is the footprint sharper money usually leaves.
Sharp money is wagering from sophisticated, high-volume bettors. It shows up as a money percentage that trails the bet percentage on the popular side — many small tickets one way, fewer and larger ones the other. On an NFL spread the typical gap is only about 2 points and one game in ten clears 22, so a double-digit gap is the part worth noticing. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: September 29, 2026 at 10:47 AM UTC
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