93% of bets are on New York Yankees -1.5 in Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees — heavy public lean on a May 4, 2026 matchup.
| Market | Side | Bet % | Money % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles | 8% | 5% | +195 |
| New York Yankees | 92% | 95% | -215 | |
| Run line | Baltimore Orioles +1.5 | 7% | 8% | -108 |
| New York Yankees -1.5 | 93% | 92% | -102 | |
| Total | Over 8.5 | 90% | 89% | -105 |
| Under 8.5 | 10% | 11% | -112 |
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees is one of the slate's lopsided public plays. 93% of the bet count on the spread market is sitting on New York Yankees -1.5 — the kind of one-way lean that usually shows up on a name-brand team in a high-profile primetime slot, not a coin-flip matchup.
The money side tells a slightly different story: 92% of dollars on New York Yankees -1.5 versus 93% of tickets. That's a small gap by itself, but in the context of a 90%+ public bet count, even a few points of money lag suggests the average bet on Baltimore Orioles +1.5 is materially larger. Books price these games knowing the public is coming — the line builds in the lean — which is why heavy public favorites historically underperform their implied win rate against the spread.
None of this is a pick. It's the snapshot of how money is landing on this game right now. See how we calculate splits →.
Our advanced model rates every MLB game by expected value, using thousands of historical splits as the backbone. Tonight's highest-EV picks are reserved for subscribers.
Want a free look? See tonight's biggest splits →
Look for 15+ point gaps where the money is on the unpopular side. Those are the games where the average bet size is doing the talking.
In our season-to-date sample, the side with more money than bets covers slightly more than half the time. The edge grows with the size of the bet/money gap.
Bet% is the share of tickets wagered on a side. Money% is the share of dollars. They diverge when one side draws bigger bets per ticket than the other.
Any licensed sportsbook in your state offers MLB markets. We don't recommend specific books — see our responsible gambling resources before you wager.
A 10-point gap is the threshold we treat as noise vs. signal. 15+ points is meaningful — it usually means the average bet on the money side is materially larger than on the public side.
When 70%+ of bets land on one side, the line builds in some of that lean — so the public favorite is rarely a value bet, even when it's the better team. Watch where the money lands relative to the bet count. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: May 27, 2026 at 9:45 PM UTC
Every game on the slate, ranked by public-vs-money divergence. Splits-based top opportunities, updated continuously. No signup, no paywall.
See all of tonight's splits →