Today's most-bet MLB favorites — the chalk side with the highest share of public bets. Public favorites historically underperform their implied win rate, especially when the money percentage trails the bet count.
| Matchup | Public side | Bet % | Money % | Gap | Sharp side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 84.0% | 64.0% | 20.0 | Cleveland Guardians |
Our advanced model rates every MLB game by expected value, using thousands of historical splits as the backbone. Tonight's highest-EV picks are reserved for subscribers.
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We aggregate publicly reported sportsbook handle on a sub-hourly cadence. See our methodology page for the full breakdown.
There are 1 games on today's MLB slate; 1 have a meaningful bet/money gap.
The most-faded teams this season — by ATS record when they're a public favorite — are listed on the most-faded leaderboard.
These are data displays. We don't issue picks. Use the splits to inform your own bets — and bet responsibly.
Public favorites still win plenty of games — they're usually the better team. Where the public underperforms is against the spread on big-name teams in heavily televised matchups, where the line moves against them and erodes the EV. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money: see our methodology →
Last updated: October 21, 2026 at 2:13 PM UTC
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