Today's most-bet MLB favorites — the chalk side with the highest share of public bets. Public favorites historically underperform their implied win rate, especially when the money percentage trails the bet count.
| Matchup | Public side | Bet % | Money % | Gap | Sharp side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 92.0% | 87.0% | 5.0 | Washington Nationals |
| Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 91.0% | 93.0% | -2.0 | Los Angeles Angels |
| Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 87.0% | 83.0% | 4.0 | Athletics |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers | 86.0% | 85.0% | 1.0 | Cincinnati Reds |
| Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs | 85.0% | 83.0% | 2.0 | Miami Marlins |
| Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 82.0% | 87.0% | -5.0 | Baltimore Orioles |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | St. Louis Cardinals | 78.0% | 75.0% | 3.0 | Colorado Rockies |
| Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 78.0% | 79.0% | -1.0 | Detroit Tigers |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Toronto Blue Jays | 73.0% | 81.0% | -8.0 | Kansas City Royals |
| Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 72.0% | 58.0% | 14.0 | Atlanta Braves |
Our advanced model rates every MLB game by expected value, using thousands of historical splits as the backbone. Tonight's highest-EV picks are reserved for subscribers.
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We aggregate publicly reported sportsbook handle on a sub-hourly cadence. See our methodology page for the full breakdown.
There are 10 games on today's MLB slate; 10 have a meaningful bet/money gap.
The most-faded teams this season — by ATS record when they're a public favorite — are listed on the most-faded leaderboard.
These are data displays. We don't issue picks. Use the splits to inform your own bets — and bet responsibly.
Public favorites still win plenty of games — they're usually the better team. Where the public underperforms is against the spread on big-name teams in heavily televised matchups, where the line moves against them and erodes the EV. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: September 6, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC
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