91% of bets are on Over 8.5 in Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles — heavy public lean on a April 24, 2026 matchup.
| Market | Side | Bet % | Money % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boston Red Sox | 34% | 21% | +106 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 66% | 79% | -124 | |
| Run line | Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 22% | 18% | -195 |
| Baltimore Orioles +1.5 | 78% | 82% | -193 | |
| Total | Over 8.5 | 91% | 88% | -115 |
| Under 8.5 | 9% | 12% | even |
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles is one of the slate's lopsided public plays. 91% of the bet count on the totals market is sitting on Over 8.5 — the kind of one-way lean that usually shows up on a name-brand team in a high-profile primetime slot, not a coin-flip matchup.
The money side tells a slightly different story: 88% of dollars on Over 8.5 versus 91% of tickets. That's a small gap by itself, but in the context of a 90%+ public bet count, even a few points of money lag suggests the average bet on Under 8.5 is materially larger. Books price these games knowing the public is coming — the line builds in the lean — which is why heavy public favorites historically underperform their implied win rate against the spread.
None of this is a pick. It's the snapshot of how money is landing on this game right now. See how we calculate splits →.
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Bet% is the share of tickets wagered on a side. Money% is the share of dollars. They diverge when one side draws bigger bets per ticket than the other.
We don't issue picks. The splits show what the public and the money are doing — use them to inform your own read of the game.
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Public favorites still win plenty of games — they are usually the better team. Where the public underperforms is against the spread on big-name teams in nationally televised games.
A 10-point gap is the threshold we treat as noise vs. signal. 15+ points is meaningful — it usually means the average bet on the money side is materially larger than on the public side.
When 70%+ of bets land on one side, the line builds in some of that lean — so the public favorite is rarely a value bet, even when it's the better team. Watch where the money lands relative to the bet count. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: May 27, 2026 at 7:39 PM UTC
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