95% of bets are on Over 9.5 in Kansas City Royals at New York Mets — heavy public lean on a July 9, 2026 matchup.
| Market | Side | Bet % | Money % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas City Royals | 19% | 20% | +165 |
| New York Mets | 81% | 80% | -195 | |
| Run line | Kansas City Royals +1.5 | 26% | 14% | -118 |
| New York Mets -1.5 | 74% | 86% | +105 | |
| Total | Over 9.5 | 95% | 94% | -105 |
| Under 9.5 | 5% | 6% | -109 |
Kansas City Royals at New York Mets is one of the slate's lopsided public plays. 95% of the bet count on the totals market is sitting on Over 9.5 — the kind of one-way lean that usually shows up on a name-brand team in a high-profile primetime slot, not a coin-flip matchup.
The money side tells a slightly different story: 94% of dollars on Over 9.5 versus 95% of tickets. That's a small gap by itself, but in the context of a 90%+ public bet count, even a few points of money lag suggests the average bet on Under 9.5 is materially larger. Books price these games knowing the public is coming — the line builds in the lean — which is why heavy public favorites historically underperform their implied win rate against the spread.
None of this is a pick. It's the snapshot of how money is landing on this game right now. See how we calculate splits →.
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A 10-point gap is the threshold we treat as noise vs. signal. 15+ points is meaningful — it usually means the average bet on the money side is materially larger than on the public side.
Look for 15+ point gaps where the money is on the unpopular side. Those are the games where the average bet size is doing the talking.
Public favorites still win plenty of games — they are usually the better team. Where the public underperforms is against the spread on big-name teams in nationally televised games.
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Sharp money is wagering activity from sophisticated, high-volume bettors. It shows up as a money percentage that exceeds the bet percentage on the same side. See our learn page for more.
When 70%+ of bets land on one side, the line builds in some of that lean — so the public favorite is rarely a value bet, even when it's the better team. Watch where the money lands relative to the bet count. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: July 9, 2026 at 3:04 AM UTC
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