Sharp money signal in Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 has 59% of bets but only 19% of the dollars.
| Market | Side | Bet % | Money % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas City Royals | 31% | 42% | -102 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 69% | 58% | -112 | |
| Run line | Kansas City Royals -1.5 | 41% | 81% | +165 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 | 59% | 19% | -188 | |
| Total | Over 8 | 94% | 93% | -125 |
| Under 8 | 6% | 7% | -115 |
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates is one of the strongest sharp-money signals on tonight's MLB slate. On the spread market, 59% of bets are on Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 but only 19% of the dollars — a 40-point gap between bet count and money share that ranks among the largest divergences in the slate.
That gap is the cleanest sharp-money tell we have. When the bet count and dollar share point in different directions, the dollars are coming from fewer, larger checks — the kind of bets that distinguish high-volume, professional action from the public crowd. Books rarely give back this much line value on a casual mistake; the price you're seeing is what the market thinks of the divergence in real time.
None of this is a pick. It's where the money is landing — you decide what to do with it. See how we calculate splits →.
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Look for 15+ point gaps where the money is on the unpopular side. Those are the games where the average bet size is doing the talking.
In our season-to-date sample, the side with more money than bets covers slightly more than half the time. The edge grows with the size of the bet/money gap.
When the bet count and the dollars don't agree, the dollars usually carry the sharper signal. A 40pp gap means the average bet on Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 is smaller than the average bet on the other side.
We don't issue picks. The splits show what the public and the money are doing — use them to inform your own read of the game.
A 10-point gap is the threshold we treat as noise vs. signal. 15+ points is meaningful — it usually means the average bet on the money side is materially larger than on the public side.
Sharp money is wagering activity from sophisticated, high-volume bettors. It shows up as a money percentage that exceeds the bet percentage on the same side — bigger checks per ticket on the contrarian view. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: September 19, 2026 at 3:06 PM UTC
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