91% of bets are on Over 9.5 in Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates — heavy public lean on a June 14, 2026 matchup.
| Market | Side | Bet % | Money % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Miami Marlins | 50% | 63% | even |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 50% | 37% | -110 | |
| Run line | Miami Marlins -1.5 | 41% | 58% | -200 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 | 59% | 42% | -180 | |
| Total | Over 9.5 | 91% | 89% | -117 |
| Under 9.5 | 9% | 11% | -115 |
Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates is one of the slate's lopsided public plays. 91% of the bet count on the totals market is sitting on Over 9.5 — the kind of one-way lean that usually shows up on a name-brand team in a high-profile primetime slot, not a coin-flip matchup.
The money side tells a slightly different story: 89% of dollars on Over 9.5 versus 91% of tickets. That's a small gap by itself, but in the context of a 90%+ public bet count, even a few points of money lag suggests the average bet on Under 9.5 is materially larger. Books price these games knowing the public is coming — the line builds in the lean — which is why heavy public favorites historically underperform their implied win rate against the spread.
None of this is a pick. It's the snapshot of how money is landing on this game right now. See how we calculate splits →.
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Public favorites still win plenty of games — they are usually the better team. Where the public underperforms is against the spread on big-name teams in nationally televised games.
In our season-to-date sample, the side with more money than bets covers slightly more than half the time. The edge grows with the size of the bet/money gap.
We don't issue picks. The splits show what the public and the money are doing — use them to inform your own read of the game.
When 70%+ of bets land on one side, the line builds in some of that lean — so the public favorite is rarely a value bet, even when it's the better team. Watch where the money lands relative to the bet count. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: June 14, 2026 at 5:02 AM UTC
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