92% of bets are on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 in Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals — heavy public lean on a July 7, 2026 matchup.
| Market | Side | Bet % | Money % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies | 88% | 79% | -210 |
| Kansas City Royals | 12% | 21% | +180 | |
| Run line | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | 92% | 88% | -130 |
| Kansas City Royals +1.5 | 8% | 12% | +120 | |
| Total | Over 8.5 | 93% | 87% | -110 |
| Under 8.5 | 7% | 13% | -105 |
Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals is one of the slate's lopsided public plays. 92% of the bet count on the spread market is sitting on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 — the kind of one-way lean that usually shows up on a name-brand team in a high-profile primetime slot, not a coin-flip matchup.
The money side tells a slightly different story: 88% of dollars on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 versus 92% of tickets. That's a small gap by itself, but in the context of a 90%+ public bet count, even a few points of money lag suggests the average bet on Kansas City Royals +1.5 is materially larger. Books price these games knowing the public is coming — the line builds in the lean — which is why heavy public favorites historically underperform their implied win rate against the spread.
None of this is a pick. It's the snapshot of how money is landing on this game right now. See how we calculate splits →.
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Bet% is the share of tickets wagered on a side. Money% is the share of dollars. They diverge when one side draws bigger bets per ticket than the other.
Public favorites still win plenty of games — they are usually the better team. Where the public underperforms is against the spread on big-name teams in nationally televised games.
Sharp money is wagering activity from sophisticated, high-volume bettors. It shows up as a money percentage that exceeds the bet percentage on the same side. See our learn page for more.
Look for 15+ point gaps where the money is on the unpopular side. Those are the games where the average bet size is doing the talking.
In our season-to-date sample, the side with more money than bets covers slightly more than half the time. The edge grows with the size of the bet/money gap.
When 70%+ of bets land on one side, the line builds in some of that lean — so the public favorite is rarely a value bet, even when it's the better team. Watch where the money lands relative to the bet count. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: July 7, 2026 at 1:46 AM UTC
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