Sharp money signal in St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh Pirates has 79% of bets but only 47% of the dollars.
| Market | Side | Bet % | Money % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals | 21% | 53% | +145 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 79% | 47% | -164 | |
| Run line | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | 57% | 44% | -155 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | 43% | 56% | +140 | |
| Total | Over 7 | 94% | 93% | -119 |
| Under 7 | 6% | 7% | -124 |
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates is one of the strongest sharp-money signals on tonight's MLB slate. On the moneyline market, 79% of bets are on Pittsburgh Pirates but only 47% of the dollars — a 32-point gap between bet count and money share that ranks among the largest divergences in the slate.
That gap is the cleanest sharp-money tell we have. When the bet count and dollar share point in different directions, the dollars are coming from fewer, larger checks — the kind of bets that distinguish high-volume, professional action from the public crowd. Books rarely give back this much line value on a casual mistake; the price you're seeing is what the market thinks of the divergence in real time.
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In our season-to-date sample, the side with more money than bets covers slightly more than half the time. The edge grows with the size of the bet/money gap.
A 10-point gap is the threshold we treat as noise vs. signal. 15+ points is meaningful — it usually means the average bet on the money side is materially larger than on the public side.
When the bet count and the dollars don't agree, the dollars usually carry the sharper signal. A 32pp gap means the average bet on Pittsburgh Pirates is smaller than the average bet on the other side.
Sharp money is wagering activity from sophisticated, high-volume bettors. It shows up as a money percentage that exceeds the bet percentage on the same side — bigger checks per ticket on the contrarian view. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: September 22, 2026 at 2:52 PM UTC
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