Modest spread split in New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars — New England Patriots +3 draws 58.0% of bets, 48.0% of money.
| Market | Side | Bet % | Money % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +3 | 58% | 48% | -105 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars -3 | 42% | 52% | -120 | |
| Total | Over 45.5 | 21% | 24% | -108 |
| Under 45.5 | 79% | 76% | -108 | |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots | 39% | 54% | +136 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 61% | 46% | -148 |
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars has a modest split worth noting on the spread market. 58.0% of bets are on New England Patriots +3, with 48.0% of dollars on the same side — a 10.0-point gap. It's a small edge, not a top opportunity, but it's a directional signal in the same direction as a real sharp-money tell.
Splits in the 10 to 15-point range are common — most games on most nights land in this band. It's not nothing, and it's not enough on its own to override the price. The money side here is Jacksonville Jaguars -3 if the gap matters. The public side is the one the line is built around. Most professional bettors don't act on a split this size in isolation; they use it as one input among several.
It didn't make this week's top opportunities for that reason. See how we rank the slate →.
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Not as a blanket rule, and we don't present it as one. NFL lines are priced knowing which side the public is coming for, so the lean is mostly in the number already. What we track is where the ticket count and the dollars disagree, which is a narrower and more specific thing than fading whoever is popular.
The spread is the market NFL bettors trade. Moneyline percentages on a big favorite mostly restate the spread lean at a worse price, so we read the spread first and only let the total take over when its split is the more unusual one.
We don't issue picks. This page shows where the tickets and the dollars are landing so you can weigh that against your own read of the game.
On NFL spreads the median gap between a side's share of tickets and its share of dollars is about 2 points, a quarter of games clear 9, and one in ten clears 22. So a gap in the teens is already a top-quarter event here, where the same number on a college board would be ordinary.
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The gap between a side's share of tickets and its share of dollars is the signal. On NFL spreads the median gap is about 2 points, a quarter of games clear 9 and one in ten clears 22 — a tighter distribution than college football, so the same number means more here. Totals run about the same, which is why a double-digit totals gap leads the page when it appears. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: September 22, 2026 at 11:41 AM UTC
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