Sharp money signal in New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions: Under 49.5 has 86.0% of totals bets but only 34.0% of the dollars.
| Market | Side | Bet % | Money % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints +7 | 38% | 27% | -110 |
| Detroit Lions -7 | 62% | 73% | -122 | |
| Total | Over 49.5 | 14% | 66% | -115 |
| Under 49.5 | 86% | 34% | -110 | |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints | 4% | 2% | +275 |
| Detroit Lions | 96% | 98% | -325 |
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions is one of the strongest sharp-money signals on this week's NFL slate. On the totals market, 86.0% of bets are on Under 49.5 but only 34.0% of the dollars — a 52.0-point gap between bet count and money share that ranks among the largest divergences in the slate.
That gap is the cleanest sharp-money tell we have. When the bet count and dollar share point in different directions, the dollars are coming from fewer, larger checks — the kind of bets that distinguish high-volume, professional action from the public crowd. Books rarely give back this much line value on a casual mistake; the price you're seeing is what the market thinks of the divergence in real time.
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Yes, more than it would be in college football. NFL spreads are set by the most efficient market in American sports, so the typical game splits its tickets around 63/37 and only about one in four sides draws 70% or more. A count that lopsided usually means a name-brand team in a primetime window — and the money percentage against it is the number that says whether the sharper bettors agree.
The total and both sides' splits are in the table above. NFL totals split about as tightly as spreads do — the typical bet/money gap is around 3 points — so when a total opens a double-digit gap it is a top-decile event and this page leads with it.
On NFL spreads the median gap between a side's share of tickets and its share of dollars is about 2 points, a quarter of games clear 9, and one in ten clears 22. So a gap in the teens is already a top-quarter event here, where the same number on a college board would be ordinary.
We don't issue picks. This page shows where the tickets and the dollars are landing so you can weigh that against your own read of the game.
Any licensed sportsbook in your state offers NFL markets. We don't recommend specific books — please read our responsible gambling resources before wagering.
Sharp money is wagering from sophisticated, high-volume bettors. It shows up as a money percentage that trails the bet percentage on the popular side — many small tickets one way, fewer and larger ones the other. On an NFL spread the typical gap is only about 2 points and one game in ten clears 22, so a double-digit gap is the part worth noticing. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: September 15, 2026 at 3:52 AM UTC
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