The opposite of a fade target — teams that have actually delivered when bettors are loaded on their side. Public favorites underperform their implied win rate as a group, but a few teams beat the average. These are the ones.
| # | Team | Win % (as public fav) | Public-fav record | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 67.9% | 36-17 as public fav | 55-37 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies | 67.2% | 41-20 as public fav | 51-43 |
| 3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.5% | 19-10 as public fav | 47-47 |
| 4 | Miami Marlins | 65.5% | 19-10 as public fav | 52-43 |
| 5 | Milwaukee Brewers | 65.1% | 41-22 as public fav | 58-33 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.0% | 58-34 as public fav | 61-34 |
| 7 | Chicago Cubs | 61.7% | 37-23 as public fav | 51-41 |
| 8 | Baltimore Orioles | 60.9% | 14-9 as public fav | 44-49 |
| 9 | Atlanta Braves | 59.5% | 44-30 as public fav | 54-39 |
| 10 | Detroit Tigers | 56.8% | 21-16 as public fav | 43-50 |
| 11 | Chicago White Sox | 56.2% | 9-7 as public fav | 48-45 |
| 12 | St. Louis Cardinals | 55.6% | 10-8 as public fav | 49-42 |
| 13 | New York Yankees | 55.4% | 46-37 as public fav | 52-42 |
| 14 | San Diego Padres | 54.8% | 17-14 as public fav | 46-48 |
| 15 | Seattle Mariners | 53.7% | 36-31 as public fav | 47-48 |
| 16 | Cleveland Guardians | 52.6% | 20-18 as public fav | 48-46 |
| 17 | Toronto Blue Jays | 52.4% | 22-20 as public fav | 45-49 |
| 18 | Los Angeles Angels | 50.0% | 5-5 as public fav | 38-57 |
| 19 | Cincinnati Reds | 47.6% | 10-11 as public fav | 42-50 |
| 20 | Texas Rangers | 47.2% | 17-19 as public fav | 48-46 |
| 21 | Kansas City Royals | 46.2% | 6-7 as public fav | 37-57 |
| 22 | New York Mets | 44.2% | 19-24 as public fav | 40-54 |
| 23 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 43.2% | 16-21 as public fav | 47-47 |
| 24 | Boston Red Sox | 42.9% | 12-16 as public fav | 44-48 |
| 25 | Minnesota Twins | 42.9% | 6-8 as public fav | 46-49 |
| 26 | Athletics | 41.7% | 10-14 as public fav | 41-53 |
| 27 | Houston Astros | 41.4% | 12-17 as public fav | 45-50 |
| 28 | Washington Nationals | 40.0% | 4-6 as public fav | 48-47 |
| 29 | San Francisco Giants | 28.6% | 4-10 as public fav | 39-54 |
Our advanced model rates every MLB game by expected value, using thousands of historical splits as the backbone. Tonight's highest-EV picks are reserved for subscribers.
Want a free look? See tonight's biggest splits →
We aggregate publicly reported sportsbook handle on a sub-hourly cadence. See our methodology page for the full breakdown.
The most-faded teams this season — by ATS record when they're a public favorite — are listed on the most-faded leaderboard.
These are data displays. We don't issue picks. Use the splits to inform your own bets — and bet responsibly.
When 60%+ of bets are on a side, the line typically moves toward that side — meaning by the time you place the bet, you're paying a premium for the chalk side. The public favorite still wins straight up most of the time; they just lose value at the line. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: July 11, 2026 at 9:15 PM UTC
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