The opposite of a fade target — teams that have actually delivered when bettors are loaded on their side. Public favorites underperform their implied win rate as a group, but a few teams beat the average. These are the ones.
| # | Team | Win % (as public fav) | Public-fav record | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Phillies | 67.2% | 43-21 as public fav | 54-44 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.7% | 36-18 as public fav | 56-40 |
| 3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.5% | 19-10 as public fav | 50-48 |
| 4 | Milwaukee Brewers | 65.2% | 43-23 as public fav | 60-35 |
| 5 | Baltimore Orioles | 64.0% | 16-9 as public fav | 48-49 |
| 6 | Miami Marlins | 63.3% | 19-11 as public fav | 52-47 |
| 7 | Chicago Cubs | 61.9% | 39-24 as public fav | 54-42 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.7% | 58-36 as public fav | 62-36 |
| 9 | Atlanta Braves | 59.0% | 46-32 as public fav | 57-41 |
| 10 | Detroit Tigers | 59.0% | 23-16 as public fav | 45-52 |
| 11 | Chicago White Sox | 57.9% | 11-8 as public fav | 52-46 |
| 12 | New York Yankees | 56.5% | 48-37 as public fav | 54-43 |
| 13 | Seattle Mariners | 53.6% | 37-32 as public fav | 49-50 |
| 14 | San Diego Padres | 53.1% | 17-15 as public fav | 48-50 |
| 15 | Cleveland Guardians | 52.6% | 20-18 as public fav | 50-47 |
| 16 | St. Louis Cardinals | 52.6% | 10-9 as public fav | 51-44 |
| 17 | Los Angeles Angels | 50.0% | 5-5 as public fav | 38-61 |
| 18 | Minnesota Twins | 50.0% | 8-8 as public fav | 49-50 |
| 19 | Toronto Blue Jays | 48.9% | 22-23 as public fav | 46-53 |
| 20 | Texas Rangers | 47.2% | 17-19 as public fav | 50-49 |
| 21 | Boston Red Sox | 46.7% | 14-16 as public fav | 48-48 |
| 22 | Kansas City Royals | 46.2% | 6-7 as public fav | 39-59 |
| 23 | Cincinnati Reds | 45.5% | 10-12 as public fav | 43-53 |
| 24 | Washington Nationals | 45.5% | 5-6 as public fav | 49-50 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 44.7% | 17-21 as public fav | 50-47 |
| 26 | New York Mets | 44.2% | 19-24 as public fav | 41-57 |
| 27 | Athletics | 41.7% | 10-14 as public fav | 42-56 |
| 28 | Houston Astros | 40.0% | 12-18 as public fav | 46-53 |
| 29 | San Francisco Giants | 37.5% | 6-10 as public fav | 42-55 |
Our advanced model rates every MLB game by expected value, using thousands of historical splits as the backbone. Tonight's highest-EV picks are reserved for subscribers.
Want a free look? See tonight's biggest splits →
We aggregate publicly reported sportsbook handle on a sub-hourly cadence. See our methodology page for the full breakdown.
The most-faded teams this season — by ATS record when they're a public favorite — are listed on the most-faded leaderboard.
These are data displays. We don't issue picks. Use the splits to inform your own bets — and bet responsibly.
When 60%+ of bets are on a side, the line typically moves toward that side — meaning by the time you place the bet, you're paying a premium for the chalk side. The public favorite still wins straight up most of the time; they just lose value at the line. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: September 6, 2026 at 1:37 PM UTC
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