The opposite of a fade target — teams that have actually delivered when bettors are loaded on their side. Public favorites underperform their implied win rate as a group, but a few teams beat the average. These are the ones.
| # | Team | Win % (as public fav) | Public-fav record | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 77.3% | 17-5 as public fav | 34-18 |
| 2 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 73.7% | 14-5 as public fav | 30-24 |
| 3 | Atlanta Braves | 68.2% | 30-14 as public fav | 37-18 |
| 4 | Chicago Cubs | 67.6% | 23-11 as public fav | 29-25 |
| 5 | Milwaukee Brewers | 65.5% | 19-10 as public fav | 32-19 |
| 6 | Baltimore Orioles | 64.3% | 9-5 as public fav | 25-28 |
| 7 | Miami Marlins | 62.5% | 10-6 as public fav | 26-30 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62.3% | 33-20 as public fav | 35-20 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Phillies | 61.3% | 19-12 as public fav | 27-27 |
| 10 | New York Yankees | 61.1% | 33-21 as public fav | 33-22 |
| 11 | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.1% | 16-12 as public fav | 26-29 |
| 12 | San Diego Padres | 56.5% | 13-10 as public fav | 31-23 |
| 13 | Cleveland Guardians | 53.6% | 15-13 as public fav | 31-25 |
| 14 | Detroit Tigers | 52.2% | 12-11 as public fav | 20-34 |
| 15 | Kansas City Royals | 50.0% | 6-6 as public fav | 21-33 |
| 16 | Seattle Mariners | 47.4% | 18-20 as public fav | 27-29 |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 45.8% | 11-13 as public fav | 29-26 |
| 18 | Houston Astros | 43.8% | 7-9 as public fav | 23-32 |
| 19 | New York Mets | 40.0% | 14-21 as public fav | 22-33 |
| 20 | Athletics | 35.7% | 5-9 as public fav | 27-28 |
| 21 | Boston Red Sox | 35.7% | 5-9 as public fav | 22-31 |
| 22 | Texas Rangers | 31.6% | 6-13 as public fav | 25-29 |
| 23 | Cincinnati Reds | 30.8% | 4-9 as public fav | 28-25 |
Our advanced model rates every MLB game by expected value, using thousands of historical splits as the backbone. Tonight's highest-EV picks are reserved for subscribers.
Want a free look? See tonight's biggest splits →
We aggregate publicly reported sportsbook handle on a sub-hourly cadence. See our methodology page for the full breakdown.
The most-faded teams this season — by ATS record when they're a public favorite — are listed on the most-faded leaderboard.
These are data displays. We don't issue picks. Use the splits to inform your own bets — and bet responsibly.
When 60%+ of bets are on a side, the line typically moves toward that side — meaning by the time you place the bet, you're paying a premium for the chalk side. The public favorite still wins straight up most of the time; they just lose value at the line. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: May 27, 2026 at 7:39 PM UTC
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