The opposite of a fade target — teams that have actually delivered when bettors are loaded on their side. Public favorites underperform their implied win rate as a group, but a few teams beat the average. These are the ones.
| # | Team | Win % (as public fav) | Public-fav record | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 69.0% | 20-9 as public fav | 51-48 |
| 2 | Milwaukee Brewers | 65.7% | 46-24 as public fav | 63-36 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | 65.2% | 43-23 as public fav | 55-45 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rays | 64.9% | 37-20 as public fav | 57-42 |
| 5 | Miami Marlins | 63.3% | 19-11 as public fav | 52-48 |
| 6 | Baltimore Orioles | 63.0% | 17-10 as public fav | 49-51 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.9% | 60-37 as public fav | 63-38 |
| 8 | Chicago Cubs | 61.5% | 40-25 as public fav | 56-43 |
| 9 | Atlanta Braves | 60.0% | 48-32 as public fav | 58-41 |
| 10 | Detroit Tigers | 58.5% | 24-17 as public fav | 47-53 |
| 11 | Chicago White Sox | 57.9% | 11-8 as public fav | 53-46 |
| 12 | New York Yankees | 57.0% | 49-37 as public fav | 56-44 |
| 13 | Seattle Mariners | 54.8% | 40-33 as public fav | 50-50 |
| 14 | San Diego Padres | 54.5% | 18-15 as public fav | 49-51 |
| 15 | Cleveland Guardians | 53.7% | 22-19 as public fav | 52-48 |
| 16 | Cincinnati Reds | 50.0% | 11-11 as public fav | 45-53 |
| 17 | Los Angeles Angels | 50.0% | 5-5 as public fav | 39-61 |
| 18 | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.0% | 10-10 as public fav | 51-47 |
| 19 | Washington Nationals | 50.0% | 6-6 as public fav | 50-50 |
| 20 | Toronto Blue Jays | 47.8% | 22-24 as public fav | 46-54 |
| 21 | Minnesota Twins | 47.1% | 8-9 as public fav | 49-52 |
| 22 | Kansas City Royals | 46.2% | 6-7 as public fav | 40-60 |
| 23 | Boston Red Sox | 45.9% | 17-20 as public fav | 51-48 |
| 24 | Texas Rangers | 45.9% | 17-20 as public fav | 50-50 |
| 25 | New York Mets | 45.2% | 19-23 as public fav | 42-58 |
| 26 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 45.0% | 18-22 as public fav | 52-49 |
| 27 | San Francisco Giants | 44.4% | 8-10 as public fav | 42-57 |
| 28 | Athletics | 43.5% | 10-13 as public fav | 42-57 |
| 29 | Houston Astros | 38.7% | 12-19 as public fav | 46-54 |
Our advanced model rates every MLB game by expected value, using thousands of historical splits as the backbone. Tonight's highest-EV picks are reserved for subscribers.
Want a free look? See tonight's biggest splits →
We aggregate publicly reported sportsbook handle on a sub-hourly cadence. See our methodology page for the full breakdown.
The most-faded teams this season — by ATS record when they're a public favorite — are listed on the most-faded leaderboard.
These are data displays. We don't issue picks. Use the splits to inform your own bets — and bet responsibly.
When 60%+ of bets are on a side, the line typically moves toward that side — meaning by the time you place the bet, you're paying a premium for the chalk side. The public favorite still wins straight up most of the time; they just lose value at the line. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: October 21, 2026 at 3:18 PM UTC
Every game on the slate, ranked by public-vs-money divergence. Splits-based top opportunities, updated continuously. No signup, no paywall.
See all of tonight's splits →