Teams that have been the public favorite at least 10 times this season, ranked by how well a fade-the-public bet would have done in those games. The fade record is wins-losses against this team when public sentiment was loaded on their side.
| # | Team | Fade Record | Public-fav sample | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Yankees | 37-48 | 85 games as public fav | 54-43 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 36-58 | 94 games as public fav | 62-36 |
| 3 | Atlanta Braves | 32-46 | 78 games as public fav | 57-41 |
| 4 | Seattle Mariners | 32-37 | 69 games as public fav | 49-50 |
| 5 | Chicago Cubs | 24-39 | 63 games as public fav | 54-42 |
| 6 | New York Mets | 24-19 | 43 games as public fav | 41-57 |
| 7 | Milwaukee Brewers | 23-43 | 66 games as public fav | 60-35 |
| 8 | Toronto Blue Jays | 23-22 | 45 games as public fav | 46-53 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Phillies | 21-43 | 64 games as public fav | 54-44 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 21-17 | 38 games as public fav | 50-47 |
| 11 | Texas Rangers | 19-17 | 36 games as public fav | 50-49 |
| 12 | Cleveland Guardians | 18-20 | 38 games as public fav | 50-47 |
| 13 | Houston Astros | 18-12 | 30 games as public fav | 46-53 |
| 14 | Tampa Bay Rays | 18-36 | 54 games as public fav | 56-40 |
| 15 | Boston Red Sox | 16-14 | 30 games as public fav | 48-48 |
| 16 | Detroit Tigers | 16-23 | 39 games as public fav | 45-52 |
| 17 | San Diego Padres | 15-17 | 32 games as public fav | 48-50 |
| 18 | Athletics | 14-10 | 24 games as public fav | 42-56 |
| 19 | Cincinnati Reds | 12-10 | 22 games as public fav | 43-53 |
| 20 | Miami Marlins | 11-19 | 30 games as public fav | 52-47 |
| 21 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 10-19 | 29 games as public fav | 50-48 |
| 22 | San Francisco Giants | 10-6 | 16 games as public fav | 42-55 |
| 23 | Baltimore Orioles | 9-16 | 25 games as public fav | 48-49 |
| 24 | St. Louis Cardinals | 9-10 | 19 games as public fav | 51-44 |
| 25 | Chicago White Sox | 8-11 | 19 games as public fav | 52-46 |
| 26 | Minnesota Twins | 8-8 | 16 games as public fav | 49-50 |
| 27 | Kansas City Royals | 7-6 | 13 games as public fav | 39-59 |
| 28 | Washington Nationals | 6-5 | 11 games as public fav | 49-50 |
| 29 | Los Angeles Angels | 5-5 | 10 games as public fav | 38-61 |
Our advanced model rates every MLB game by expected value, using thousands of historical splits as the backbone. Tonight's highest-EV picks are reserved for subscribers.
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We aggregate publicly reported sportsbook handle on a sub-hourly cadence. See our methodology page for the full breakdown.
The most-faded teams this season — by ATS record when they're a public favorite — are listed on the most-faded leaderboard.
These are data displays. We don't issue picks. Use the splits to inform your own bets — and bet responsibly.
No. Fading works when the public lean is heavy enough to push the line off the true number. On games with balanced action, there's no edge to fade — and even on heavy-public games, the fade is a long-term-EV play, not a one-game lock. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: September 6, 2026 at 1:36 PM UTC
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