This week's NFL games with the strongest directional public lean — ranked by the highest share of spread tickets concentrated on one side. A heavy lean usually means a name-brand team or a primetime window.
| Matchup | Public side | Bet % | Money % | Gap | Sharp side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs splits → | Under 42.5 | 78.0% | 62.0% | 16.0 | Over 42.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers splits → | Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 | 71.0% | 74.0% | -3.0 | Arizona Cardinals +8.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts splits → | Baltimore Ravens -3 | 67.0% | 36.0% | 31.0 | Indianapolis Colts +3 |
| Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers splits → | Under 47.5 | 89.0% | 49.0% | 40.0 | Over 47.5 |
| Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles splits → | Philadelphia Eagles -6 | 66.0% | 76.0% | -10.0 | Washington Commanders +6 |
| Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars splits → | Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 | 64.0% | 81.0% | -17.0 | Cleveland Browns +8.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers splits → | Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 | 62.0% | 86.0% | -24.0 | Atlanta Falcons +6.5 |
| New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions splits → | Under 49.5 | 86.0% | 33.0% | 53.0 | Over 49.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams splits → | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | 61.0% | 42.0% | 19.0 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 |
| Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings splits → | Green Bay Packers +2.5 | 57.0% | 48.0% | 9.0 | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 |
Our advanced model rates every NFL game by expected value, using thousands of historical splits as the backbone. This week's highest-EV picks are reserved for subscribers.
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16 games carry a published split this week, and 10 of them make this page. The board fills in from the moment lines are posted and every game shows its latest snapshot until kickoff.
By the number in the headline column: the bet/money gap for the splits and sharp-action pages, the public bet percentage for the favorites, underdogs and most-bet pages. Every row reads the game's leading market — the spread, unless a total's split is the more unusual one.
No. These pages rank where the tickets and the dollars are landing so you can weigh that against your own read. The subscriber page is where the expected-value model turns the same data into rated plays.
Continuously through the game week: the source is polled on a sub-hourly cadence on game days and every few hours between them, and the page re-reads the latest snapshot on each visit. Once the week's last game kicks off the board rolls to the next week as soon as its first lines are captured.
A heavy one-way lean means casual bettors agree by a wide margin. The line builds in some of that lean — so the public side is rarely a value bet even when it's the better team. Watch where the money lands relative to the bet count. See our methodology →
How we track public bets and money — see our methodology →
Last updated: September 15, 2026 at 2:55 AM UTC
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